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Who are the true fans? Turning a feeling into a score

Everyone in the business could name a "true fan" and nobody could count them. Defining fans by what the company cares about — customers who pay more and leave less — and measuring how each service's recency, frequency and intensity relate to that, produces a score that ranks every customer, says which services make a fan, and holds up on customers it has never seen.

Engagement score and rank

Scoring the customers…

Before · rank by raw usage count
Churn in the next 6 months, by decileholdout customers
Monthly revenue (ARPU), by decile

After · RFM levels, weighted by what they predict
One variable, binned

Service weights in the scoreshare of the score's spread
Churn and ARPU by score decilesame holdout customers
ranked by usage countranked by engagement scoredeciles run from the top 10% (left) to the bottom 10%
1 · Define, then measure

A fan pays more and stays

"True fan" became an operational target: high revenue and low churn, combined into one standardized quantity. For every service — mobile data, IPTV, the streaming app, music, payments, the membership store — recency, frequency and intensity (RFM) describe how each customer uses it.

2 · Levels, not raw numbers

Optimal binning with a genetic algorithm

Raw usage is skewed and non-linear: the tenth login a month means less than the first. Each RFM variable is cut into levels at the points that best separate the target; a genetic algorithm searches cut points when exhaustive search is too slow. Each level then carries the target's average for that level.

3 · Weights, score, rank

Least squares does the rest

Regressing the target on the levelled variables gives a weight per service and per RFM facet — which services make a fan — and a 0–100 score for every customer. Holdout deciles confirm the score separates churn and revenue far better than counting usage, and the weights tell marketing where usage growth pays.