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Predicting who responds to immunotherapy, in cohorts the model has never seen

Gut-microbiome signatures of response to immune checkpoint inhibitors tend to fall apart when a model trained on some cohorts meets another: different countries, different species. Describing what the microbes can do — protein families found by embedding and clustering their genes — carries across cohorts better than which species happen to be present. The same clusters, used as an index, make a large protein catalogue searchable in a fraction of the comparisons.

Response prediction and biomarker discovery

Embedding and clustering proteins…

Before · species abundances only
AUC on each held-out cohorttrained on the other eight
Strongest featuressquares = folds where it is in the top 5
After · species + protein-family clusters
AUC on each held-out cohortsame folds
Strongest features · biomarker candidatessquares = folds where it is in the top 5
species-only modelwith protein-family clustersdashed = mean AUC · dotted = chance
1 · Embed and cluster

Proteins as vectors, families as clusters

Every gene in the catalogue becomes a protein embedding — ESM2 and gLM in the project, generated vectors here — and the vectors are clustered. In production more than 100 million sequences collapsed into about 6 million clusters with MMseqs2 and Foldseek; here 12,000 proteins form 200 clusters by k-means.

2 · Predict across cohorts

Function travels, species do not

Each sample's species abundances are mapped onto the clusters its species carry, giving a functional profile. A model is trained on eight cohorts and tested on the ninth, for every cohort in turn — the honest test for a biomarker meant to work in a new hospital.

3 · Candidates and search

Stable features, fast lookup

Features that stay among the strongest in every fold are biomarker candidates, not artefacts of one cohort. The cluster centroids double as an index: a query is compared with the centroids first, then only with the members of the nearest few clusters.